With 10 Tests remaining in this WTC cycle, South Africa, India, Australia, and Sri Lanka are still in contention for a spot in the final. Here’s a breakdown of each team’s position and what they need to do to make it to the top two.
South Africa
Current Position: 63.33%
Matches Remaining: 2 (vs Pakistan at home)
South Africa’s clean sweep against Sri Lanka (2-0) has placed them at the top of the WTC table. To guarantee their place in the WTC final, they need to win just one of the two Tests against Pakistan at home.
- If South Africa wins 1-0 or 2-0, they are guaranteed a top-two finish.
- If the series is drawn 1-1, they finish with a win percentage of 61.11%, meaning only one of India or Australia can surpass them.
- If both Tests are drawn, South Africa will end with a percentage of 58.33%, which allows Australia (60.53%) and India (58.77%) to overtake them if both teams achieve favorable results.
- If South Africa loses the series 1-0, they would need Australia to win no more than 2 of their remaining 5 Tests, and India to win no more than 1 and draw 1 of their 3 Tests against Australia.
Sri Lanka
Current Position: 45.45%
Matches Remaining: 2 (vs Australia at home)
Even if Sri Lanka wins both Tests against Australia, they will only finish with a percentage of 53.85%, which isn’t enough to guarantee a top-two finish.
- To qualify, Sri Lanka needs to win both Tests while hoping that South Africa loses both Tests against Pakistan.
- Sri Lanka would also need India and Australia to finish below 53.85%, which would require Australia to win 2-1 with two draws against India.
- If South Africa wins just one Test, Sri Lanka is effectively out of the race.
India
Current Position: 57.29%
Matches Remaining: 3 (vs Australia away)
India’s WTC final hopes depend on their performance against Australia. To be certain of a place, they need at least 2 wins and 1 draw from the 3 Tests.
- If India wins the series 3-2, they will finish with a percentage of 58.77%, which is higher than Australia’s maximum possible percentage (57.02%).
- If India loses 2-3, they will end with 53.51%, which would allow South Africa, Australia, and even Sri Lanka to surpass them.
- If India wins only 1 Test and draws 1, they may need help from other results, such as South Africa losing both Tests to Pakistan.
Australia
Current Position: 60.71%
Matches Remaining: 3 (vs India at home) and 2 (vs Sri Lanka away)
Australia’s fate is still in their hands. They need to secure 2 wins out of 3 Tests against India to guarantee a place in the WTC final.
- If Australia wins the series 3-2, they will finish with a percentage of 55.26%, which secures them at least a second-place finish, even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka.
- If Australia loses the series 2-3, they will drop to 53.51%, meaning they would need to win both Tests against Sri Lanka to qualify.
- If Australia wins only 1 of the 3 Tests against India, they will likely need South Africa to lose or draw both Tests against Pakistan.
Pakistan
Current Position: 33.33%
Matches Remaining: 2 (vs South Africa away) and 2 (vs West Indies at home)
Pakistan’s chances of reaching the WTC final are slim, relying on an unlikely set of results.
- Even if Pakistan wins all 4 of their remaining Tests, they will only reach a percentage of 52.38%, which is still lower than South Africa’s current 52.78%.
- For Pakistan to qualify, they would need South Africa to lose an over-rate point (bringing them down to 52.08%) and for India and Australia to finish below 52.38%.
Teams Out of the Race
- New Zealand
- England
- West Indies
- Bangladesh
These teams no longer have any chance of finishing in the top two of the WTC table.
Summary of WTC Final Scenarios
| Team | Current % | Matches Left | Guaranteed Final Spot If |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 63.33% | 2 (vs Pakistan at home) | Win 1 Test vs Pakistan |
| India | 57.29% | 3 (vs Australia away) | Win 2 Tests, Draw 1 vs Australia |
| Australia | 60.71% | 3 (vs India home), 2 (vs SL) | Win 2 Tests vs India |
| Sri Lanka | 45.45% | 2 (vs Australia at home) | Win 2 Tests, SA must lose both Tests |
| Pakistan | 33.33% | 2 (vs SA), 2 (vs WI) | Must win 4/4 + favorable results |
Final Thoughts
The WTC final race is heating up with only 10 Tests left in this cycle. South Africa is in the best position, needing just one win against Pakistan to secure their spot. Australia and India control their fate with key series ahead. Sri Lanka and Pakistan, meanwhile, have slim but not impossible chances, relying on favorable results from other teams.
Stay tuned as the drama unfolds!